Effective Empiricism

A working method

Approach

How to keep a disagreement empirical.

Before evidence can settle a disagreement, agree on the claim, what counts as evidence, and what would change your mind.

  1. 01

    Define the question.

    State the question and the decision it affects. Define the terms, who or what you are studying, and the time frame. Set a baseline for comparison.

  2. 02

    Make the measure explicit.

    Name the outcome and how you will measure it. Give the denominator and the threshold for success. If the dispute concerns definitions or values, say so.

  3. 03

    Ask before asserting.

    Ask which assumptions each explanation needs. Give competing explanations their strongest form. A claim is clearer when its alternatives are clear.

  4. 04

    Keep the record separable.

    Record what you observed separately from how you interpret it. Label forecasts and compare them with outcomes. State value judgments explicitly.

  5. 05

    Preserve uncertainty.

    Report ranges and base rates. Show how estimates change with their assumptions, and name what remains unknown. Precision is not the same as accuracy.

  6. 06

    Make revision possible.

    State what would change your mind. If nothing could, the disagreement is not empirical; it is a conflict of commitments.

  7. 07

    Prefer robust action.

    Choose actions that work across several plausible futures. Monitor their effects and leave room to change course.